Last updated on September 15, 2019
Due to cooler than normal waters in the Atlantic, weather forecasters have reduced their predictions for the amount of activity expected this season.
Meteorologists with Colorado State University have reduced their storm activity prediction for the Atlantic Basin due to cooler-than-normal waters. They now say that the 2018 hurricane season will likely consist of below-normal activity.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Michael Bell from the university are now calling for a total of 11 named storms (including Alberto, the named storm we’ve already had), 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. This new forecast is down from the previously predicted 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.Chart: Colorado State University
They also say that the amount of accumulated cyclone energy, which takes into account both intensity and duration of each cyclone, is now projected to be 60 for the Atlantic season, which is about two-thirds of its typical value over the last 30 years.
“I don’t really see any way that this season ends up active at this point,” said Klotzbach in a Twitter message. “The Atlantic remains colder than normal, and the odds of El Niño look to be increasing too. We’re also already starting to see stronger than normal wind shear in the Caribbean.”
Not only are the tropical and subtropical Atlantic much colder than normal, the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months has increased.
With the decrease in the 2018 hurricane forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States and Caribbean has decreased as well.
June 1 marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season for Cancun and Riviera Maya and finishes November 30.