As Cancun and the Riviera Maya make their way into mid-hurricane season, it’s normally the traditional autumn months of September and October that pose the greatest risk.
This year, however, weather forecasters are continuing with their initial prediction, that the 2015 hurricane season will remain uneventful.
According to Bill Gray, a 31-year veteran with the Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University, conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain unfavorable for hurricane formation. He says the original call that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will see a below-average probability of a major hurricane landfall still stands.
Information gathered through the month of July show that the remainder of the season will be much less active than average. Gray notes they estimate the remainder of the hurricane season to produce two hurricanes – the average is 5.5 and that there will likely be five named storms – the average is 10.5.
Forecasters say the area has maintained a below-average risk due to a strong El Niño as well as a vertical wind shear that was recorded at record high levels in the Caribbean in July. As of July 31, the possibility of a hurricane within 100 miles of Mexico’s east coast is 26 percent — statistical long-season average is 57 percent. The long-term possibility of a major hurricane coming within 100-miles of Mexico’s eastern coast is 9 percent – statistical long-season average is 23 percent.
The forecast is based on a newly-developed, extended-range statistical prediction scheme developed with information from the past 33 years.