Cancun, Riviera Maya, Q.R. — With hurricane season around the corner, the first predictions for the 2019 Atlantic season have been released.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, the 2019 Atlantic season will be a near-to-slightly-above normal season. He says that for this year, the Atlantic should see between 12 and 14 storms.
Of those storms, five to seven will likely be hurricanes with two to four of those becoming major hurricanes.
“This year, we think that there will be a few less tropical storms and lower numbers in hurricanes, but again, the old saying is ‘it only takes one’,” said the AccuWeather expert.
He also says that meteorologists are forecasting two to four to hit the US this year.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, names for the 2019 season are Andrés, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
Tropical cyclones are named when maximum sustained winds reach at least 40 mph, which is tropical storm status.
Kottlowski says that predictions for the upcoming 2019 hurricane season are taken from comparisons of previous or analog years.
He says that “This year, at least the climate pattern has the capability to produce several very strong storms and so people should not let their guard down,” adding “This year, just about all coastal areas look like they have equal chances.”
Monitoring for the season will begin early, with meteorologists paying particular attention to the Southeast coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.
“Those are the areas that we will monitor very closely, not only in June, but because water temperatures are warm, we start looking at that even in April and May,” he said.
An early Atlantic forecast by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) was released December 18, which called for a slightly below-average season. Their recent April update maintains that same forecast, with the TSR calling for a 20 percent less-active season than last year with 12 tropical storm and five hurricanes, two of which they predict to become major hurricanes.
Hurricane season for the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30.