Cancun, Q.R. — Hurricane predictions for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico in 2018 will be similar to the hyperactive season last year from beginning to end with some landfalls, say analysts.
According to Global Weather Oscillations, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is going to be comparable to last year, which ended with 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, six of which were considered major.
David Dilley, senior research and prediction scientist for Global Weather Oscillations, predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of last year, and maybe even another record breaker. Dilley says that while he predicts it to be similar, some hurricane landfalls will occur in different places this year.
He anticipates 16 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of which will be major and potential for the United States. Dilley says “some United States zones are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years.”
This is a Natural Climate Pulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1930s and 1940s and is now repeating, adding that this is the reason for another destructive hurricane season.
He explains that the ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin, especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening close to the United States.
Dilly is not alone in his predictions. Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at Weather Underground also says that this year will be another active season.
“My hunch is that we will see another active season in 2018, though we have little skill making such forecasts so far in advance. My forecast is based on the idea that El Niño conditions will not be present, as is often the case when we see a developing La Niña event the preceding winter.”
Masters says that 2017 and 2018 could be a similar one-two punch with near-record high global temperatures that will continue to keep temperatures in the Atlantic well above average.
“Plus, hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches,” Masters said. “We saw hurricanes go bananas in 2004 to 2005, and it is reasonable to predict that we might see a similar 2-year spike in activity in 2017-2018.”
Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist and hurricane expert at AccuWeather also said the possibility of a busy 2018 season is very real. Like Masters, Kottlowski also expects warmer than average temperatures to still be the reality.
“The conditions for tropical development won’t be quite as ideal [as 2017], however with the warm temperatures across the Atlantic Basin we have to assume there will be a better chance we’ll see an above-average number of storms across the Atlantic.”
The 2017 season was the seventh most active on record, according to the end-of-season summary released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“This was a hurricane season that wouldn’t quit,” said Timothy Gallaudet, acting NOAA administrator.
In February, local meteorologists said that area residents should brace for a hot, record-breaking summer.